ULAN BATOR, May 29 (Reuters) - Mongolia plans to issue a $1 billion debt offering to put its fiscal affairs back in order, it said on Thursday, as it tries to ride a wave of good will that arose from a $6 billion deal with global miner Rio Tinto (Xetra: 855018 - news) for its giant Oyu Tolgoi copper mine.
According to a statement from Thursday's Cabinet meeting, a deal for the launch of the crucial expansion project at Oyu Tolgoi has given investors reason to reassess risk in the country.
"International investors are keen to buy bonds of Mongolia," the statement said.
Mongolia is hungry for cash injections after an 84 percent decline in foreign investment last year, caused by a weaker commodities market and slowing growth in China.
The country faces the maturity in 2017 of state-backed bonds from the Development Bank of Mongolia worth $580 million and sovereign bonds worth $500 million in 2018.
Mongolia could use the proceeds to relieve debt pressures and stabilize its balance of payments, the cabinet statement said. But the country will have to be careful in spending the funds to avoid breaching debt restrictions that cap debt to about 58 percent of GDP.
"It looks like they'll use the proceeds to refinance some of their mid-term debt obligations, allowing them to avoid breaching the debt ceiling," said Badral Munkhdul, the head of the market-analyst firm Cover Mongolia.
Traders speculated earlier this month that Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia left value on the table in its government-backed $500 million debt offering. Mongolia's largest commercial bank may have found more favorable conditions than the 9.375 percent yield it settled on May 19, which was above the sovereign curve, had it waited for the resolution of Oyu Tolgoi.
Andrew Fennell, an analyst at Fitch Ratings, was on the fence about the idea while the government's plans on how to use the funds remained unclear.
"If the ultimate purpose is for refinancing purposes then we would view the proposal as credit neutral," Fennel said in an email. "However, if the debt issuance is intended to finance additional public expenditure and raise public debt levels significantly beyond current levels then we would view this as credit negative."
Fitch estimates that debt was at 63 percent at the end of 2014, which includes all debts explicitly guaranteed by the Mongolian government.
Shangri-La Hotels and Resorts is set to open in Mongolia’s capital city, Ulaanbaatar, on 3 June 2015.
The new Shangri-La hotel is located near Nayramdal Park and the Great Chinggis Khaan Square. It will be connected to the Shangri-La Centre, debuting in 2016, which comprises apartments, retail stores and commercial space.
The 290 guestrooms of Shangri-La Hotel, Ulaanbaatar are spacious, with suites at 84 square metres in size to accommodate a separate master bedroom and living area. All rooms are furnished with Wi-Fi, an executive desk, marble bathroom and a window seating area to view vistas and mountain ranges. The hotel is decorated in natural tones, lightly coloured wood, textured stones and glass lights, some in the shape of hunting horns to represent the warrior spirit of Mongolia.
Other amenities offered by the hotel include a gym, massage facilities, a lobby lounge, and a bar.
An all-day dining option at the hotel will be the Cafe Park that serves a variety of cuisines, while a Chinese restaurant called Hutong is expected to open in August 2015.
For a meeting or event space, the hotel offers eight rooms totalling 2,643 square metres, including a pillar-free Grand Ballroom capable of seating more than 800 guests.
At the hotel’s uppermost floors, the Horizon Club will be launched in July 2015. With granted access to the Horizon Club Lounge, guests are also given privileges to express check-in and check-out service, complimentary breakfast, all-day beverages, cocktails and canapés in the evening, and daily use of the meeting room.
The Shangri-La Hotel, Ulaanbaatar, will be accessible from both Chinggis Khaan International Airport and train station with a journey time of 40 minutes and 20 minutes per trip, respectively. Limousine transportation may be reserved.
To view the best months to stay in Ulaanbaatar and for more information or to make reservations, please visit here.
ULAN BATOR, May 26 (Xinhua) -- Mongolia hopes to dovetail its ambitious Steppe Road plan with such regional undertakings as the China-proposed Belt and Road initiatives, said a senior official.
The Steppe Road, an infrastructure construction proposal aimed at boosting the Mongolian economy through trans-border transportation, is not a one-country mission, new Minister of State Mendsaikhany Enkhsaikhan told Xinhua in a recent interview.
Mongolia, as a country between China and Russia, should serve as the transportation channel for the two big countries, he said, adding that only through the joint efforts of the three sides will the Steppe Road plan be properly implemented.
He called for a three-party mechanism to discuss how to integrate the Mongolian plan with the Beijing-proposed Silk Road Economic Belt initiative as well as with the Eurasian Economic Union.
The Steppe Road project, with an estimated investment of 50 billion U.S. dollars, includes a 997-km highway connecting China and Russia and a 1,100-km electrified railway, according to the minister.
It also includes the expansion of existing Mongolian rail system and the construction of natural gas and oil pipelines, added Enkhsaikhan, who is now in charge of the plan.
With rich resources, Mongolia had enjoyed fast economic growth before the pace slowed down over the last few years, with foreign direct investment having also plummeted.
Enkhsaikhan said he looks forward to the early operation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its financial help for improving his land-locked country's infrastructure.
Mongolian Mining Journal spoke with the president and executive director of Oyu Tolgoi LLC, Andrew Woodley, regarding current issues at the company.
I guess the media must be asking a lot about the underground mine. But I want to know about the open pit mine. In last week’s parliamentary session, it was said that the copper concentrate export of Oyu Tolgoi’s (OT) open pit mine has been decreasing, and the decrease is expected to continue. What is the cause of the sudden fluctuation?
I don’t know based on what sources the discussion was held at Parliament. But in the last year, we had logistic issues at the border, so a great amount of reserves from exploration and export was accumulated. After fully resolving the logistics issue ,we exported a great amount of concentrate by the end of the previous year. We sold the generated concentrate and continued exploration, so export was high at the end of 2014. Since the new year, the company’s activities has been progressing normally.
Three years have passed since OT started exploration at the open pit mine, so in some places ore grades are good, while some are poor. In the first quarter of 2015, exploration was made at low grade areas, so the export amount was low. At the beginning of this week, we are going to explore in a high grade areas, so the results of the second quarter of 2015 will be higher. These are the reasons for sale and production fluctuations, but there wasn’t a high fluctuation as mentioned at Parliament.
In the underground mine plan, it was stated that Mongolia will control purchase and project selection. How will this change sales and project selection?
The general principle will be the same as in the open pit mine purchase process. Firstly we will make purchases from domestic producers. On this issue, we hope to effectively cooperate with Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi.
How will the construction of railroad to Gashuunsukhait lower OT’s transportation costs?
The railroad construction to Gashuunsukhait will have a great positive influence on OT’s production. But the main consumer of the railway will be coal mines, so it will provide a chance to all mines.
When will Mongolian managers start working at the decision making level of the company? Some people were involved in professional trainings, and some believe that they reached the necessary level. What is their current position?
We are a Mongolian company, and our shareholders are Mongolians, so we pay attention to this issue. Four leaders that were involved in trainings will work in the management level. In particular, one of them is chairing my task group. We will discuss his appointment to the managerial position soon. Moreover, we will keep training our Mongolian staff. I would like to say that Mongolians gain high skills in a short period of time.
How much will OT save by purchasing electricity from Tavan Tolgoi power station?
We haven’t yet established an agreement on power purchase from Tavan Tolgoi power station. But purchasing power from Tavan Tolgoi power station will bring positive results for sure.
How will the exploration technology of the underground mine be different from the open pit mine? Will the changes affect project expenditure?
In regards to the economic condition and various technological solutions, we will change not only conveyers but seek other solutions in the other parts of our exploration. We will have to study all solutions, and finalize our feasibility study. We will be reporting about solutions that will be made in the feasibility study.
Besides the management service payment, a new expense called “manager’s payment” was included in the underground mine plan. How will the additional payment to Rio Tinto increase OT expenses?
I don’t think there is a concept about manager’s payment. Rio Tinto provides information technology and software services to OT through the management service. We make purchases from many subsidiaries of Rio Tinto, so we save on expenses and receive quality services. In some cases, we take advice from Rio Tinto. The concept might refer to that kind of expenses.
APIP chief executive Lee Cashell says firms and investors should take advantage of opportunities in Mongolia - See more at: http://business.asiaone.com/news/time-ripe-spore-investors-step-mongolia#sthash.qQbA08M3.dpuf
IN THE last three weeks, investments of US$6 billion (S$8 billion) - nearly half Mongolia's annual economic output - have been pledged to the vast, sparsely populated nation.
This is a clear sign that the country's economy has reached an "inflection point", which firms and investors in Singapore should take advantage of, said Asia Pacific Investment Partners (APIP) chief executive Lee Cashell.
APIP, a Mongolia-listed property-development conglomerate, is the country's largest real estate agency, with an 85 per cent market share.
In an interview in Singapore last Friday, Mr Cashell said Mongolia is the fastest-growing Asian economy, achieving double-digit growth between 2011 and 2013.
And Mongolia's property market is ripe. "From an investment point of view, Mongolian real estate is able to deliver rental yields of about 12 per cent, which is substantially higher than other regional countries'," said Mr Cashell.
This is helped by the conducive business environment and favourable regulations. For instance, there is no restriction on foreign investment, no capital gains tax and, possibly, the lowest rental income tax in Asia, he added.
That said, Mr Cashell said he believes opportunities abound for Singapore's financial services and construction sector. He cited "mispriced financing terms" in Mongolia due to the lack of financial services, allowing banks to charge higher interest, and yield attractive returns on investment.
Also, as the Mongolian government continues to invest in its construction sector to satisfy the capital's demand for housing, Singapore's construction and project-management firms can step in to address the gap.
Moreover, Mongolia's mining sector, though cyclical, remains strong. Mr Cashell cited the recent deal between the Mongolian government and Rio Tinto Group, one of the world's largest mining corporations. The deal included the group's injection of US$5 billion into Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia's largest mining company.
Two of the world's largest mines also sit on the Mongolian side of the border with China, in the Gobi Desert area.
"Mongolia has the lowest population density in the world but it has one of the largest amounts of minerals in the world... All the wealth is in the ground," he said.
Mongolia is rich in minerals like coal, copper and gold.
However, Mr Cashell said there are concerns that Mongolia's astonishing growth rates could cause high inflation and soaring prices.
He added that Mongolia's political situation has been a concern for investors. "Mongolia is a democracy so, sometimes, you get political leaders very much in favour of foreign direct investment, and, every once in a while, you get leaders who want to slow down."
The lack of an adequate supply chain and a small market of three million have also deterred firms, he said.
In spite of these challenges, Singapore investors appear confident of the nation's outlook.
One of APIP's latest projects, a mixed development known as The Village@Nukht, received more than US$5 million in investments from two family offices, a sophisticated type of investment fund.
In three weeks, it will work with real estate firm Square Yards Singapore to launch the Oasis Residence in the capital Ulan Bator.
The group aims to sell half of its units to buyers in Singapore, and has received queries from a private investor here interested in acquiring half the building.
Even though Mongolia may be unfamiliar territory to many Singapore investors, Mr Cashell is not deterred. Lack of education is not a good excuse for not finding a good investment, he said jokingly.
In early October of 2014, the Mongolian coalition democratic government, because of its policy known as the “Reform Government” at the initiative of Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag proposed a reform of the government by reducing the number of ministries from 16 to 13 by their merger, updating their composition, etc. Norovyn Altanhuyag, in his letter to President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, justified the need for these changes by the economic situation, the desire to reduce bureaucracy and cut the costs of the administrative apparatus.
However, despite the President’s agreement in principle, the Government’s proposal has met stiff resistance from the Mongolian parliament – the State Great Hural (SGH), especially from deputies – members of the Mongolian People’s Party.
The MPP had long been leading an attack against, the Prime Minister and Chairman of the Democratic Party Norovyn Altankhuyag. And on October 19, 2014, all 26 members of the BNP’s MPP faction and two independent deputies through the Speaker of the Parliament Zandaakhüügiin Enkhbold demanded resignation of Norovyn Altankhuyag accusing him of a variety of unforgivable sins: the collapse of the consolidated budget for 2015, the consolidation of the 2013-2014 budgets with a large deficit, the failure of the “100-day Economic Stimulus Initiative”, the devaluation of the national currency, the Tögrög, nepotism in the appointment of advisors, etc.
From our point of view, most of these accusations are far-fetched, because Norovyn Altanhuyag was one of the most successful Mongolian Prime Ministers who had done a lot within the 2 years when he was leading the government for the good of the people and the country and promotion of democratic governance. He fell because of the ploys and pressure from the MPP.
Whatever the reason may be, on November 5, 2014, at the plenary session of the SGH, on the recommendation of the Parliamentary Standing Commission on State Building, 36 members of parliament voted for the resignation of the Prime Minister (with 30 votes against this decision) and, accordingly, for the resignation of the entire truly reformist government.
It can be said that this lead to an intergovernmental crisis, but it was resolved by November 19, 2014 when 72 out of the 76 members of the SGH (with 95.5% present at the session), with 2 votes against and with the absence of all the 26 members of the MPP fraction, elected the new Prime Minister, member of the DP and former chief of staff of the government, a 45-year-old historian and lawyer Chimediin Saikhanbileg, who formed a coalition government from almost all political parties. Moreover, unlike in the previous Government, more than half of ministers, are not members of the SGH, which should please President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, who is an opponent of “double-purpose garments” when one person is a member of the SGH while holding a position in the government.
Consequently, Mongolia for the first time was faced with a paradoxical situation when there is virtually no opposition in the Parliament, except for the votes of three independent members, who are usually critical of the policy of any office, but they make no difference, which makes it possible for the Government, together with the Parliament, to proceed to solving the backlog of the acute problems, the economy, which has seen better times, being the first and foremost priority.
The fact of the matter is that 2014 was the year of the fall of important economic indicators when the GDP growth declined from 17.3% in 2011 to 7.2-5% in 2014. The forecast for 2015 also predicts a 5% growth. By all means, 7.2% or even 5% growth is not yet a crisis, but there is a clear sharp economic slowdown which is caused by objective and subjective reasons.
The Mongolian economy is powered, to a great extent, by foreign investment which fell 7.5 times from USD 4.5 billion in 2011-2012 to USD 600-845 million in 2014. Accordingly, the rate of the national currency – the Tögrög – also fell from 1,320 MNT per USD at the beginning of 2014 to 1,995 MNT at the end of the same year, i.e. by more than 40%.
The financial situation is also very unstable. Mongolia’s currency reserves are only sufficient to meet the country’s needs for 18 weeks. It can be said that Mongolia is mired in debt: as of October 2014, the amount of outstanding loans increased 3.4 times and reached MNT 550 billion. The country also has a large foreign debt – USD 19.8 billion – which has to be repaid to foreign creditors, with USD 580 million due by March 2017. According to estimates, Mongolia will have to spend 10% of its budget revenues each year for 16 years to fully repay its foreign debts.
The high inflation rate which reached 11.5% in 2015 instead of the planned 6.8%, the upward surge in consumer goods prices from 10.6% to 177% on average, the closing of over half (54.1%) of businesses by the middle of 2014, all these are evidence of the serious difficulties and signs of crisis in the Mongolian economy.
Most certainly, the main reason for these negative developments is the effect of the global economic crisis which caused a sharp drop in the prices of basic articles of Mongolian exports: copper, coal, iron ore, cashmere, resulting in the 2014 budget losing USD 800 million.But in many ways, these challenges are man-made. The new Prime Minister Chimediin Saikhanbileg admitted in the address to the members of the parliament “We have created this crisis ourselves. Our efforts to expand production failed and our laws scared away investors.”
One of the subjective reasons for the current difficulties is the irrational waste of budgetary funds by the previous government, especially of USD 2.3 billion received on global capital markets through the issue of the so-called “Genghis Khan bonds” and “Samurai bonds.”
Part of these extra-budgetary revenues was simply handed out in cash, including through various types of grants: scholarships to students regardless of their academic performance, high severance payments to retiring government officials, allowances to mothers of large families who have the “Mother Glory” award, monthly payments of MNT 20,000 to all children under the age of 18, etc. All this has enabled the columnist of the Morning Newspaper D. Enyatuvshin to describe Mongolia as a “subsidized state” in his article titled “The Real Situation” in January of this year.
An example of the irrationally generous spending, which was pointed out by the Prime Minister in his first big TV interview on January 28, 2015, was the construction of 29 cultural centers in the centers of somons with a population of up to 1000 people and two-story schools in areas which had as little as 100 students.
It is clear from all of the above why Chimediin Saikhanbileg, when answering the question during the same interview on the priorities for the government, repeated three times “the economy, the economy and the economy again.” The Prime Minister believes that the current economic difficulties will be temporary and that they can be overcome by relying on the private sector and that there are two options to achieve this: “1) to launch large-scale projects and attract investment and 2) to reduce costs and become economically disciplined.”
An online, e-mail and TV opinion poll was carried out from January 31 to February 3, 2015 to identify the ways for development of Mongolia in 2015-2016. 56.1% of the 365,841 respondents were in favor of the first option, i.e. for the implementation of large-scale formative projects and 43.9% were supported the reduction of costs and strengthening of economic discipline.
Thanking the poll participants, Chimediin Saikhanbileg said during a government meeting on February 3, 2015 that the cabinet will work actively to promote large-scale projects, to harmonize the economic and fiscal policy and to reduce budget losses.
The first efforts of the government are evidence of its determination to use both ways identified by the Prime Minister. As such, the government has approved the Mongolian-Chinese-Japanese consortium as the investor for the development of the rich mine in the Umnugovi Aimag Tavan Tolgoi that has 100 billion tons of coal, including coking coal. The consortium is comprised of the leading China Shenhua Energy Company, the Japanese group Sumitomo and the Mongolian Energy Resourcees (Erdenes Tolgoi).
Minister M. Saihan has already announced the successful start of negotiations with the consortium. The deal will require the investment of USD 3-4 billion to increase the production and export of coal; in 2014, exports amounted to about 6 million tons (or 10% of China’s coal imports, the plans for 2015 are to export 11 million tons), to construct a coal preparation plant by 2017 with the annual capacity of 30 million tons, power plant and railway to the Chinese border: Tavan Tolgoi – Gashuun Sukhait.
Commissioning of the Sharyn Gol coal preparation plant with the annual capacity of 600,000 tons of coal is scheduled for the end of Q1 2015.
The 2015 budget has been approved with amendments and additions. Expected revenues are MNT 6,000,632,000,000 (27.5% of the GDP), expenditures – MNT 7,000,237,000,000 (32.7% of the GDP). Although budget expenditures have been cut by MNT 400 billion, the deficit is still very high: MNT 1,204,000,000,000 or 5% of the GDP.
The number of state employees will be reduced by 15% or 1,600 people, whose numbers in 2014 increased from 4,400 to 6,800 people leading to the increase in the payroll by MNT 210 million.
The government is also forced to discontinue the New Somon project which provided for a radical transformation of somon (district) complexes, leaving only 2 of the previously planned 14 complexes, to implement restructuring of the Academy of Sciences which currently has 49 research institutes and employs 1,500 research staff with the payroll of MNT 400 million. The focus is being made on transferring research work to universities where it should be combined with teaching and training of professionals.
On the whole, the government is committed by 2015 to reduce all budget and off-the-budget costs by almost MNT 1 trillion after obtaining from international financial institutions cheap long-term loans with the annual rate of 2% maturing in 10-15 years.
The austerity measures will go hand in hand with the income tax raise by MNT 60 billion from businesses and MNT 7.3 billion from individuals.
It looks like it will not be easy for the government to sustain the policy of austerity measures, because the Parliament insisted on retaining all the multibillion social commitments: the increase of state employees’ salaries by 10%, the allocation of MNT 19.4 billion. in benefits to mother heroines and MNT 9.1 million to pregnant women and nursing mothers, the MNT 19 billion increase of pensions and the allocation of MNT 70 billion for soft-term financing to small and medium-sized businesses, etc.
Under these conditions, the signing on February 11, 2015 by the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the Mongolian Prime Minister Chinediyn Saikhanbileg of the long-awaited Economic Partnership Agreement following the working visit of the Mongolian Prime Minister to Japan on 9-11 February 2015 is becoming even more important. The idea of preparing such an agreement (which is the 15th of this kind for Japan and the first one for Mongolia) was announced for the first time in 2010 during the state visit of then President of Mongolia Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj to Tokyo, when Japan was named a strategic partner of Mongolia. Since that time, this idea has been gradually acquiring form and substance. And in 2014, after three years of work, 80 experts presented the preliminary text of the 1,000-page Agreement. It is a general agreement which covers a wide range of issues of trade, industry, production, services, competitiveness, etc. In February 2015, the Parliament of Mongolia, SGH, ratified the Economic Partnership Agreement with Japan and it entered into force. The Agreement is intended to smooth the trade structure: today Mongolia imports account for 90% and its exports for 10% with 50% of imports being used Japanese cars and exports comprised of meat, horse meat and cashmere.
The Agreement also paves the way for increasing the inflow of direct investments from Japan which was USD 500 million in 2014 and which, according to the Mongolian counterparts, was clearly unsatisfactory. There will be a manifold increase in investments as during the negotiations, the Government of Japan allocated a further ODA loan of JPY 46,800,000,000 (or USD 310.6 million) at the request of the Mongolian side for completion of the construction of the new Khöshig Valley Airport near Ulan Bator.
Finally, the ties of the Mongolian economy to the third most powerful economy in the world will, to a great extent, contribute to the country’s industrialization. According to Chinediyn Saikhanbileg “we have agreed to solve many problems that have long been awaiting a solution, including the implementation of the medium-term program of Mongolia-Japan strategic cooperation in such areas as construction of power plants, railways, steel and copper production factories, hard surface roads and a subway in the capital city.”
As such, it can be safe to assume that the measures undertaken by Chinediyn Saikhanbileg’s government, which is said by the public the government of national unity and the government to “solve all problems,” the policy of austerity measures and the promotion and implementation of major projects, along with the help and support from Japan, will prevent Mongolia from sliding into an economic crisis and will help it to achieve sustainable development, which we sincerely wish they will do.
Rio Tinto Group will seek to raise as much as $6 billion of external funding for the Oyu Tolgoi underground mine in Mongolia as the company prepares a war chest to develop one of the world’s largest untapped deposits of copper and gold.
The money will be raised through third-party project financing, product off-take arrangements and other forms of funds, according to a development plan published by Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd., which owns 66 percent of Oyu Tolgoi. Overseas investors led by Rio control the project through this stake.
Rio and the Mongolian government last week ended a protracted dispute that stalled construction of the underground mine. A midnight signing of the plan in Dubai followed two years of start-stop talks between the two sides that tested the resolve of foreign investors in the Asian country.
Rio has a goal of raising more than $4 billion in third-party project financing and will target 15 to 20 banks, Jean-Sebastien Jacques, head of its copper and coal business, said in a May 19 phone interview. Discussions on terms are to begin in the “coming days and weeks,” he said.
Less than 10 percent of the 200 kilometers (124 miles) of underground tunnels needed for the mine have so far been built, Jacques said. This will take five to seven years, he said.
The negotiations, which included about 30 points of dispute, centered on taxes and cost overruns on the first phase of the mine construction.
Strong Signal
Signing the plan “is a strong signal to investors,” Mongolian Parliamentary Speaker Enkhbold Zandaakhuu said on Saturday. “Mongolia will honor its obligations to investors. I think it’s a very good sign.”
Both sides agreed phase one costs were in line with approved programs and budgets and there are no outstanding issues between the two sides over expenses in this stage, the plan shows.
The initial phase, with a price tag of more than $6 billion, included an open-pit mine that went into production in mid-2013.
The agreement also resolved differences of opinion on using Oyu Tolgoi mine licenses as collateral for financing the underground portion.
Mongolia agreed to provide “security interest” to lenders, including pledges of the Oyu Tolgoi mining licenses and immovable property, as well as benefits of the investment and shareholders’ agreement.
Review Meetings
The parties will hold monthly operational review meetings that will include updates on capital expenditure to address Mongolia’s complaints over a lack of transparency.
The country stands to benefit from a clarification on the management services payment, which must be paid to the team running the project. The rate has been lowered to 3 percent of the capital costs of the underground stage from 6 percent before.
Estimated underground development capital is $4.7 billion, sustaining capital is $1.5 billion and the value-added tax and duties on capital is $600 million, the agreement shows.
The government of Mongolia is to receive $2.2 billion in direct payments and the total estimated direct spending in the country is $9 billion during the underground stage of construction and funding.
While construction of a copper smelter to process concentrate from the mine isn’t yet assured, the agreement states that Oyu Tolgoi LLC will prepare a research report by September 2016 on the economic viability of constructing and operating a smelter.
The agreement also re-states earlier estimates that the government of Mongolia will receive more than 53 percent of the total value of project during its lifetime in the form of taxes, royalties and payments.
On the face of it, Mongolia – a landlocked and wild land – hasn’t changed much since Genghis Khan and his Golden Horde pillaged their way across Asia in the 13th century. The country’s population is still predominantly made up of nomadic herders living in yurts and drinking airag – fermented mare’s milk.
But this is all about to change after an agreement was reached between the government and Rio Tinto last week to develop one of the world’s largest copper and gold mines at Oyu Tolgoi, which literally means Turquoise Hill. The development of the mine is expected to trigger a rush to exploit $1 trillion (£638bn) worth of mineral resources that are thought to exist in the country and drag its mainly agrarian society into the modern age.
Signs of this transformation are already apparent on the streets of the capital Ulan Bator where around 40pc of the country’s 2.8m population now live. Skyscrapers and new office developments across the city are confronting signs of the impending change that the arrival of the mining industry will bring. Oyu Tolgoi is at the forefront of this new era, which according to the Chimediin Saikhanbileg, the prime minister, will “benefit Mongolian citizens for generations to come”.
Developing the major next phase of the mine not only signals a new era of modernity for Mongolia but an important turning point for the global mining industry, which has been focused squarely on retrenchment over the past two years as the so called commodities “super cycle” ran out of momentum. Oyu Tolgoi marks the first new major project to move forward in the current cycle and could see other major miners begin to once again look at developing new capacity, especially in copper.
However, reaching a final deal to develop the underground mine, which contains 80pc of Oyu Tolgoi’s monetary value has been a rocky road for both sides. The Anglo-Australian mining company shut down initial underground operations at Oyu Tolgoi amid a dispute over the terms of the project with the previous government.
This had a devastating affect on Mongolia’s economy, which was already becoming dependent on revenue from the project’s above-ground operations. Starved of hard currency, the government was forced to turn to China to fund its budget.
Moody’s Investors Service warns that Mongolia’s economy is fragile. According to its ‘External Vulnerability Indicator’ – which measures the adequacy of reserves relative to external debt payments in the next 12 months – Mongolia stands at 230pc in 2015; significantly above the 100pc threshold that indicates fragility in the balance of payments.
Mr Saikhanbileg, who is known as a moderniser, wants to turn this around but faces opposition from parties who are concerned that Mongolia will lose its identity and ultimately become entirely dependent on the mining industry. He even conducted his own referendum by sending a text message to all Mongolians that own a mobile phones asking them whether the country should open up to mining investment. About 56pc of people who responded said yes they wanted investment in mining to lift the country out of poverty.
The US-educated prime minister has even talked of his vision of using some of the proceeds from mining to establish a Mongolian sovereign wealth fund that will ensure that the country’s commodities boom isn’t wasted. Mongolian sovereign bonds rallied on news of the Oyu Tolgoi deal with Fitch, which rates the country B+, saying the deal would have “potentially transformative consequences”.
“It is such a big project for Mongolia so there was lots of anxiety and questions,” Jean-Sébastien Jacques, chief executive of Rio Tinto’s copper and coal division said. Mr Jacques is understood to have personally ironed out the fine details of the deal with Mr Saikhanbileg in the kitchen of his home in London. According to the company, the personal relationship which both men struck up played an important part in moving the deal forward.
“There was a change of government a few years ago and one of the agendas at that time was to change the deal and change the agreement. It took us a long time to explain the deal to them and to change this but we got there in the end,” said Mr Jacques.
The Mongolian government holds a 34pc stake in the Oyu Tolgoi mine with Rio Tinto acting as the project’s operator. Its subsidiary Turquoise Hill Resources owns the remaining 66pc. Rio owns a 51pc stake in Turquoise Hill.
By the time it reaches its full potential by the end of the decade, Oyu Tolgoi will be producing enough copper and gold to account for between 30pc and 40pc of Mongolia’s projected gross domestic product. Production at the smaller above-ground open mine, which started operating in 2013, is expected to reach 195,000 tonnes of copper and up to 700,000 ounces of gold in concentrates in this year.
But the real value in the project is hidden deep underground and Rio Tintowill have to excavate around 200 kilometres of tunnels, which is expected to take around five years to complete, before the mine can achieve its full potential. This phase of the project is expected to cost around $6bn to develop and Rio Tinto will finance around $4bn of this figure through a syndicate of banks.
The majority of the mine’s copper production will ultimately head to China where demand for the metal is expected to rise significantly over the next decade. However, amid a deep downturn in the mining sector when shareholders are demanding that companies cut back on capital expenditure and refrain from making bold bets on new mining projects, Rio Tinto is still shouldering a big risk in Mongolia. According to Mr Jacques, this bet will pay off long term.
“Oyu Tolgoi is a large low-cost ‘tier-1’ asset so it doesn’t matter where you are in the cycle you are going to make money from it for shareholders. To build the mine it will take several years so if you take a medium and long-term view on copper and everyone agrees that in a few years down the road there should be a shortage and therefore one should expect the price of copper to recover significantly. So we’re trying to bring online the underground at a point in time when the market recovers in a significant way,” said Mr Jacques.
I’m passing on some interesting information – food for thought – that I received by email this month.
At the last health talk I covered some traditional diets of our healthy ancestors and how they had an extremely rare incidence of cancer as compared to our modern diet. These cultures are now gone.
There still exists today a country whose diet is significantly different than our modern diet.
It is Mongolia. They have retained a lot of their traditional diet, but not all of it.
The Independent Republic of Mongolia is a living laboratory for the study of cancer incidence and mortality.
Mongolians basically subsist on red meat and dairy, including meat from cows, horses, camels, yaks, sheep, goats and sometimes game. Their national drink, airag (also known as kumis, similar to kefir), is fermented mare’s milk.
If foods of animal origin were intrinsically harmful to humans, then one would expect Mongolians to get eight-to-10 times as much cancer as the industrially advanced countries.
Instead, Mongolia’s age-adjusted breast cancer incidence rate is 8.0 per 100,000. Contrast this to the Japanese rate of 42.7, the European rate of 66.6 and the North American rate of 76.7 per 100,000.
In other words, America’s rate is more than eight times that of Mongolia.
Breast cancer mortality follows a similar trend.
The Mongolian BC death rate is 3.4 per 100,000, while the Japanese rate is 9.2, the European is 16.9, and the North American is 14.8 per 100,000. Thus the BC death rate in Europe or America is about four times that of Mongolia, according to a 2012 study.
“Mongolia’s low breast cancer incidence is of particular interest because of their unusual diet … compared with other Asian countries,” wrote Dr. Rebecca Troisi and her NIH and her NIH colleagues.
I could go on, and it is one of very many examples that shows that what we’ve come to accept as fact about nutrition and health is completely wrong.
This is the purpose of the health talks I do to shed some light on the subject of health.
Here is the full text of the Remarks made by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Mongolian Parliament.
Your Excellency President of Mongolia,
Your Excellency Chairman of Great Hural of Mongolia,
Your Excellency Prime Minister of Mongolia,
Honourable Members of Parliament,
Honourable Members of Diplomatic Corp,
I am delighted to visit Mongolia, a country of great people. Your country reminds us how beautiful this world is. It is truly a great honour to speak to the Great Hural. It is a special privilege to do so in the 25th year of democracy in Mongolia. You are the new bright light of democracy in our world.
I am deeply grateful for your generosity in hosting me on a Sunday. I am humbled by the warmth of the welcome and your wonderful hospitality. ;Everything that I see and experience here speaks clearly of unlimited goodwill for India.
I bring the greetings of your 1.25 billion spiritual neighbours. There is no higher form of a relationship; no bonds more sacred than this. We in India are honoured that you think of us this way.
As in the life of a human being, in the life of a nation, too, few things are as precious as the gift of friendship. So, I speak for my entire nation to say that we deeply cherish the friendship of the Mongol people.
India and Mongolia are at an important milestone. We are celebrating sixty years of diplomatic relations. But, our ties are timeless in spirit.
Around two thousand years ago, monks from India crossed difficult terrain and long distance to spread the message of Lord Buddha in this enchanting land. Many went from here to the hot tropics of India in search of spiritual knowledge.
Centuries ago, when our horizons and our mobility were limited, the great Mongols united Asia and Europe. Their stories of courage, daring and adventure continue to captivate human imagination around the world. Their impact on human history has been profound.
In the winding course of history, our own cultures, literature and art became interconnected. And, it continues to shine in the richness of India’s diversity and culture.
Today Indians and Mongolians are telling the world that the bonds of hearts and minds have the strength to overcome the barriers of distance. That bond thrives through the monks from Mongolia who come to India each year for spiritual learning; and, the hundreds of others who go there for education and training.
It lives through the work of Kushok Bakula Rinpoche India’s Ambassador here from 1990 to 2000. The Pethub Monastery that he established here will be an enduring symbol of our links.
In the popularity of the yoga in Mongolia, we see the unity of our spirit.
Five decades ago, we stood firmly with you, as you sought membership of the United Nations as a proud and sovereign nation. In turn, time and again, you have stood in solidarity with us, in the United Nations and elsewhere.
While the human bonds have been strong, our economic ties have been modest. But, I have no doubt that our relations will progress along every avenue of the new age. It will draw strength from India’s economic growth.
A year ago, a nation of 1.25 billion people voted for change and progress in the largest democratic election in human history. We have worked with speed, resolve and ambition to fulfill our pledge.
In less than a year, our growth has rebounded to 7.5%.India has emerged as one of the fastest growing major economies in the world. And, we have the potential to grow even faster.
At a time when the global economy remains weak, the world speaks in one voice that India is the bright spot of hope to become the new locomotive for global economic momentum.
We are conscious that our challenges are vast across India’s immense social and economic diversity. But, we have faith in our sound policies and good governance.
We draw confidence from the unity of our nation and the common purpose of our people. Even more, we get our energy from the aspirations of a young India, with 800 million youth under the age of 35 years. They are eager to pursue their dreams and confident in their ability to do so.
So, as we transform the lives of our people, we also create opportunities for the world. And, we increase our ability to help our friends. This is the urge of the land of Buddha and Gandhi. This is the instinct born from our ancient belief in the world as one family.
As the Indian economy adds strength to our region and the world, it will also benefit Mongolia.
Mongolia’s economic growth is also impressive. So, our bilateral ties will also grow, despite the distance and demands of geography.
Mongolia’s rich mineral resources can fuel our partnership. And, I hope that location will not be a constraint on Mongolia’s right to choose its partners.
We can seize the economic opportunities of the digital world and work together to make it more secure against growing cyber threats. We can use India’s expertise in dairy to launch a white revolution on these vast steppes. We can work together to add value to Mongolia’s pashmina resources right here. We can create partnerships for affordable modern healthcare in Mongolia. We can use our heritage of traditional medicines to improve holistic treatment in our countries and abroad. As Indians travel abroad more, Mongolia has the opportunity, with its natural and spiritual wealth, to become a major destination for them.
More than just trade and investment, our development partnership is a reflection of our shared ideals and vision. I believe that the greatest form of this partnership is investment in the development of human resources and institutions.
This gives a nation its own capacity to shoulder the responsibility for its progress. It enhances its independence of choice. And, it makes progress more sustainable.
We remain deeply committed to this vision.
Today, I will lay the foundation stone for the expansion and upgrading of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Centre for Excellence in Information and Communication Technology.
Under India’s training programme, Mongolia is one of our largest partners. We will increase the ITEC training slots for Mongolia from 150 to 200. We will also establish an India-Mongolia Joint School.
Later today, I will hand over the Bhabhatron equipment that can help treat cancer in Mongolia. This will be the first demonstration of our cooperation in the civil nuclear sector.
Finally, today I conveyed to Prime Minister our decision to provide one billion U.S. dollars Line of Credit to develop institutions, infrastructure and human resources in Mongolia.
Our security cooperation is growing. We can learn a great deal from each other. No one can doubt the well-known skills of Mongols! We are proud to conduct defence exercises together. And, I am pleased that we have signed agreements today to cooperate more closely on border security and cyber security.
We have also agreed that India will help establish a cyber security centre in Mongolia’s defence and security establishment. But, the real strength of our relationship lies in the goodwill between our people and in the faith that unites us across the distances. It is a power that can do more than just draw our two countries closer. It can help advance peace, stability and prosperity in Asia and the Pacific Region.
There was a time when the messengers of Lord Buddha linked Asia with his message of love and compassion. The shifting sands of time have not buried their footprints, because the value of their message never diminishes.
Wherever I have travelled in Asia – from the edge of Pacific to the centre of the Indian Ocean; from the sea shores of Southeast Asia to the lofty heights of the Himalaya; from the thick forests of the tropics to the expanse of these steppes – I see thriving monuments and temples dedicated to Lord Buddha.
The eight-fold path of Lord Buddha prescribes not just the path to happiness of individuals, but also a guide to the well being of societies and nations. It is a message of kindness, love and compassion for all. It is a lesson of deepest respect for human beings and human rights; for faith in peace and non-violence. This is a path that tells us to reach out to the weakest and the poorest in our societies. It is a wisdom that sees the inter-dependence of all things in the universe and the virtue of simplicity. Therefore, it is a path to a more a sustainable planet.
It holds lessons for the world that is threatened by the excesses of consumption and disharmony between man and nature. As in the prosperous West, Asia of rising incomes and aspirations must remember and follow this message. Above all, it is a guide for a relationship of peace, equality, respect and cooperation between nations, small and large, weak and powerful.
It is a call for each of us, as individuals and as nations, to assume the universal responsibility to mankind and our planet. It inspires us to think of common good of all nations. The teachings of Lord Buddha are reflected in the principles of democracy.
The path of righteousness is based on freedom of mind, liberty of thought, liberty of action and liberty of speech. These are the foundations of democracy. It is defined by recognition of inter-dependence, acceptance of diversity and belief in co- existence.
Its essence is the freedom of human beings, faith in dialogue, rule of law, and resolution of differences through peaceful means. So, if we follow the Right Path of the master, it will also be natural to walk on the path of democratic values.
Here, in Mongolia, we see the union of these two ideals.
I say this to Asia:
Whatever forms of government each nation chooses, however we define ourselves as a State, we can still apply the principles of democracy in our engagement with each other.
Whatever path we have chosen, whatever be the history of our disputes, or the nature of our claims, we are linked by the common spiritual heritage across a vast arc of Asia.
The convergence of Buddhism and democracy provides us a path to build an Asia of peace and cooperation, harmony and equality.
This is a region that has woken up to its destiny. No region in the world has seen so much progress in the last half century as Asia. No age has seen transformation on such scale in one generation as our continent.
This is a region of ancient wisdom and youthful dynamism It is a continent that is expected to lead the world in the 21st century. Yet, this is also a ;region that lives on the uneasy edge of uncertainty, of unsettled questions, of unresolved disputes and unforgotten memories.
Across Asia’s diversity, we also see growing disparity of hope and opportunities. Asia has given much to the world through the ages. It now has the responsibility to shape its future.
So, now more than our own requirements, I am sure we will be able to fulfill the requirements that Asia wants from us and the world thinks about us. And I am sure that with our spiritual background, and our extraordinary quality of the mind, we can serve the world and society.
And I am sure that the path of righteousness is paved with the freedom of mind, liberty and thought. I am sure that whatever we have decided, and in this widening course of history, our own cultures, literature and art become interconnected and it continues to shine in the richness of India’s diversity and culture. Today Indians and Mongolians are telling the world that the bonds of hearts and minds have the strength to overcome the barriers of distances.
This is a token of our reverence for our shared spiritual heritage and respect for our friendship.
As the sapling grows, it will be an emblem of our growing partnership.
In time, it should also become a symbol of humanism in the world and conservation of our planet.
Энэтхэгчүүд гадагшаа их аялах боллоо. Монгол Улсад байгалийн болон оюун ухааны боломж их байна. Иймээс Монгол орон нь Энэтхэгчүүдийн зорьж ирэх орны нэг байж болно.
