World Politics Review: In what ways is climate change affecting Mongolia’s agriculture, particularly the economically and culturally significant livestock sector?
Tungalag Ulambayar: Mongolia is particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to the salience of its agriculture sector. As of 2017, one-third of the national labor force was employed in agricultural work and the sector accounted for 8.4 percent of the country’s exports and 10.6 percent of its GDP. Within the agriculture sector, almost 83 percent of total production comes from traditional pastoral livestock cultivation, which includes 66.2 million heads of livestock grazing some 72 percent of the country’s territory. Over 616,000 Mongolians—nearly 20 percent of the population—belong to herder households. The arable farming sector is smaller, but importantly, it aims to meet domestic demand for staple crops like wheat and potatoes, as well as some vegetables.
Livestock herding and non-irrigated arable farming are both very much dependent on weather patterns, which have changed dramatically in the past several decades due to climate change. Since the 1940s, the annual mean air temperature in Mongolia has risen by 2.2 degrees Celsius—nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit—almost three times higher than the global average warming rate. Annual precipitation has decreased by 7 percent over the same time period, causing increased aridity and glacier retreat, as well as a decline in the number of lakes and rivers. This trend has been associated with observed changes in plant species and biomass production and an increase of barren areas, in turn resulting in a decrease in the average weight of livestock. On the other hand, winter precipitation has increased along with temperature drops that have led to a reduction in winter grazing. Extreme climatic events such as wildfire and drought—as well as a post-drought winter weather disaster that Mongolians call “dzud”—have increased in frequency and severity, causing an increase in livestock mortality and diminishing livelihoods for herders. For instance, the last major dzud in the winter of 2009-10 caused the deaths of 11.3 million heads of livestock, more than a quarter of the country’s total livestock population. That led to widespread rural poverty and a contraction of the national economy.
WPR: What steps are Mongolian farmers and herders taking to adapt to the impacts of climate change? How are they being assisted in those efforts by other sectors of Mongolian society and by the international community?
Ulambayar: Businesses that engage in arable farming have been making efforts to increase irrigation so that crops are less reliant on rainfall and introduce more drought-resistant crop breeds with higher yields. Some leading companies in this sector have recently introduced no-till farming technology, which is better for carbon sequestration and soil water retention.
Common adaptation strategies for herders include improving rangeland management by joining formal herder organizations, introducing more productive livestock breeds, taking advantage of veterinary services to increase livestock productivity, increasing winter shelters, keeping more hay and other forages in reserve, and building and repairing wells to protect natural water sources. However, most herders and farmers are still insufficiently protected from climate-induced disasters like droughts, wildfires and dzuds.
The government of Mongolia has implemented various policy measures to support these efforts. For example, the National Program for Combating Climate Change was adopted by the Mongolian parliament in 2011. Updated climate change objectives were included in the National Green Development Policy of 2014 as well as Mongolia’s Sustainable Development Vision for 2030, which was adopted in 2016. The government has also established several funds to increase agricultural producers’ access to financing as they implement their climate change adaptation strategies.
Since the mid-1990s, many international donor initiatives have also been expanded to assist reforms in the agriculture sector and more recently to support efforts for overcoming the impact of climate change. In particular, technical assistance programs from multilateral organizations—including the United Nations Development Program, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N. and the World Bank—as well as donors from Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands have played a critical role in shaping Mongolia’s modern market-oriented agriculture system. Foreign donors have also played a valuable role in formulating climate change policies and action plans, building capacity in government institutions and private producers, and increasing Mongolia’s access to financial resources.
WPR: What are the key challenges to Mongolia’s food security in the coming decades, and how adequately prepared is the government to meet them?
Ulambayar: In 2017, Mongolia’s agriculture sector was able to meet national demand for meat, meat products and potatoes. Domestic famers supplied 99 percent of flour, 51 percent of vegetables and 43 percent of eggs that were consumed that year. In general, Mongolia’s food self-sufficiency has been improving, but the country remains dependent on imports of rice, chicken, fish, beans, fruits and vegetable oil. According to the National Statistical Office, the country has no problem meeting the standard recommendation for calorie consumption per capita, but there are pervasive issues with nutrition that stem from limited diversity in many peoples’ diets.
While the current level of access to food is adequate to meet Mongolians’ basic dietary needs, ongoing climate change could threaten this picture in the future by adversely affecting agricultural production. Key challenges in this regard include rangeland degradation caused not only by a warming climate but also by inadequate regulations, policies and management; widespread corruption and mismanagement of state funds dedicated to support enterprise development; a shortage of professional personnel in state agricultural institutions that enforce climate change adaptation policies; and insecurity of land tenure for traditional herders to access grazing lands. Due to an expansion in the mining industry as well as large-scale infrastructure projects, the total area of productive agricultural land has declined by roughly 1.28 million acres since 2013. While that number accounts for only 0.5 percent of total agricultural land, it still implies a loss of grazing and farming areas for many rural households.
One significant challenge for Mongolia’s development aspirations, including adapting to the threat of climate change, is its political instability. Power struggles between the parliament, the president and the prime minister have caused 14 changes of government since Mongolia’s democratic transition in the early 1990s, leading to widespread public distrust and dissatisfaction in the two major political parties. In particular, a recent scandal over the misuse of money from the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Fund sparked large-scale protests and the resignation of the agriculture minister. This scandal, as well as the related parliamentary gridlock, have undermined public confidence in Mongolia’s ability to adapt to climate change.
Tungalag Ulambayar: Mongolia is particularly susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to the salience of its agriculture sector. As of 2017, one-third of the national labor force was employed in agricultural work and the sector accounted for 8.4 percent of the country’s exports and 10.6 percent of its GDP. Within the agriculture sector, almost 83 percent of total production comes from traditional pastoral livestock cultivation, which includes 66.2 million heads of livestock grazing some 72 percent of the country’s territory. Over 616,000 Mongolians—nearly 20 percent of the population—belong to herder households. The arable farming sector is smaller, but importantly, it aims to meet domestic demand for staple crops like wheat and potatoes, as well as some vegetables.
Livestock herding and non-irrigated arable farming are both very much dependent on weather patterns, which have changed dramatically in the past several decades due to climate change. Since the 1940s, the annual mean air temperature in Mongolia has risen by 2.2 degrees Celsius—nearly 4 degrees Fahrenheit—almost three times higher than the global average warming rate. Annual precipitation has decreased by 7 percent over the same time period, causing increased aridity and glacier retreat, as well as a decline in the number of lakes and rivers. This trend has been associated with observed changes in plant species and biomass production and an increase of barren areas, in turn resulting in a decrease in the average weight of livestock. On the other hand, winter precipitation has increased along with temperature drops that have led to a reduction in winter grazing. Extreme climatic events such as wildfire and drought—as well as a post-drought winter weather disaster that Mongolians call “dzud”—have increased in frequency and severity, causing an increase in livestock mortality and diminishing livelihoods for herders. For instance, the last major dzud in the winter of 2009-10 caused the deaths of 11.3 million heads of livestock, more than a quarter of the country’s total livestock population. That led to widespread rural poverty and a contraction of the national economy.
WPR: What steps are Mongolian farmers and herders taking to adapt to the impacts of climate change? How are they being assisted in those efforts by other sectors of Mongolian society and by the international community?
Ulambayar: Businesses that engage in arable farming have been making efforts to increase irrigation so that crops are less reliant on rainfall and introduce more drought-resistant crop breeds with higher yields. Some leading companies in this sector have recently introduced no-till farming technology, which is better for carbon sequestration and soil water retention.
Common adaptation strategies for herders include improving rangeland management by joining formal herder organizations, introducing more productive livestock breeds, taking advantage of veterinary services to increase livestock productivity, increasing winter shelters, keeping more hay and other forages in reserve, and building and repairing wells to protect natural water sources. However, most herders and farmers are still insufficiently protected from climate-induced disasters like droughts, wildfires and dzuds.
The government of Mongolia has implemented various policy measures to support these efforts. For example, the National Program for Combating Climate Change was adopted by the Mongolian parliament in 2011. Updated climate change objectives were included in the National Green Development Policy of 2014 as well as Mongolia’s Sustainable Development Vision for 2030, which was adopted in 2016. The government has also established several funds to increase agricultural producers’ access to financing as they implement their climate change adaptation strategies.
Since the mid-1990s, many international donor initiatives have also been expanded to assist reforms in the agriculture sector and more recently to support efforts for overcoming the impact of climate change. In particular, technical assistance programs from multilateral organizations—including the United Nations Development Program, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the U.N. and the World Bank—as well as donors from Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands have played a critical role in shaping Mongolia’s modern market-oriented agriculture system. Foreign donors have also played a valuable role in formulating climate change policies and action plans, building capacity in government institutions and private producers, and increasing Mongolia’s access to financial resources.
WPR: What are the key challenges to Mongolia’s food security in the coming decades, and how adequately prepared is the government to meet them?
Ulambayar: In 2017, Mongolia’s agriculture sector was able to meet national demand for meat, meat products and potatoes. Domestic famers supplied 99 percent of flour, 51 percent of vegetables and 43 percent of eggs that were consumed that year. In general, Mongolia’s food self-sufficiency has been improving, but the country remains dependent on imports of rice, chicken, fish, beans, fruits and vegetable oil. According to the National Statistical Office, the country has no problem meeting the standard recommendation for calorie consumption per capita, but there are pervasive issues with nutrition that stem from limited diversity in many peoples’ diets.
While the current level of access to food is adequate to meet Mongolians’ basic dietary needs, ongoing climate change could threaten this picture in the future by adversely affecting agricultural production. Key challenges in this regard include rangeland degradation caused not only by a warming climate but also by inadequate regulations, policies and management; widespread corruption and mismanagement of state funds dedicated to support enterprise development; a shortage of professional personnel in state agricultural institutions that enforce climate change adaptation policies; and insecurity of land tenure for traditional herders to access grazing lands. Due to an expansion in the mining industry as well as large-scale infrastructure projects, the total area of productive agricultural land has declined by roughly 1.28 million acres since 2013. While that number accounts for only 0.5 percent of total agricultural land, it still implies a loss of grazing and farming areas for many rural households.
One significant challenge for Mongolia’s development aspirations, including adapting to the threat of climate change, is its political instability. Power struggles between the parliament, the president and the prime minister have caused 14 changes of government since Mongolia’s democratic transition in the early 1990s, leading to widespread public distrust and dissatisfaction in the two major political parties. In particular, a recent scandal over the misuse of money from the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Fund sparked large-scale protests and the resignation of the agriculture minister. This scandal, as well as the related parliamentary gridlock, have undermined public confidence in Mongolia’s ability to adapt to climate change.
Source:World Politics Review
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